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Results from a Private Survey of the Employment Situation for February, 2020
Public data about the Employment Situation is due to be released tomorrow by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Giller Investments operates private consumer survey that we base proprietary trading strategies on. We are happy to share the results we have for several statistics including Non-Farm Payrolls and the U-3 Unemployment Rate. This data is available on AWS Data Exchange in real time as survey results are processed for subscription here. Full details in the press release here.
From a private survey of the employment situation taken last month, the change in payrolls in the United States is estimated to have dropped by 55.0 thousand to 125,697. Average working hours are estimated to have risen by 0.089 hours to 34.335 hours. Average hourly earnings are estimated to have risen by 0.416% to $28.45 per hour. The Unemployment rate is estimated to have dropped by 0.048% to 3.596%. Data are seasonally adjusted.
This data is from a private consumer survey operated by Giller Investments. The results of the survey are used as an input to proprietary trading activity. This data is provided to the public and may be reproduced with attribution. This is not investment advice and should not be treated as such. Giller Investments (New Jersey), LLC is not a RIA.
Ex Post Update:the BLS’s data on Non-Farm Payrolls indicated a seasonally adjusted change of +273, roughly twice our estimate but below the upper estimate of our 95% confidence region. U-3 Unemployment was 3.5%, marginally lower than our central estimate and the other numbers were similarly close.
