Results from a Private Survey of the Consumer Sentiment and Expectations for Mid-March, 2020

Data about the Consumer Sentiment and Expectations is due to be released today at 10 am by the University of Michigan, from their Surveys of Consumers program. Giller Investments operates private consumer survey that we base proprietary trading strategies on. We are happy to share the results we have for several statistics including Consumer Sentiment and Expectations of Inflation. This data is available on AWS Data Exchange in real time as survey results are processed for subscription here. Full details in the press release here.

Key: yellow highlights are data that should be compared with todays’s releases, blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the prior released data fits within our estimates.

From a private survey of conditions and expectations taken this month, an index of consumer sentiment in the United States is estimated to have dropped by 2.3 points to 100.3 at mid-month. Expectations of inflation over a 5–10 year horizon are estimated to have remained unchanged at 2.3%

This data is from a private consumer survey operated by Giller Investments. The results of the survey are used as an input to proprietary trading activity. This data is provided to the public and may be reproduced with attribution. This is not investment advice and should not be treated as such. Giller Investments (New Jersey), LLC is not a RIA.

Ex post update: The University of Michigan published values of 95.9 for Consumer Sentiment, which is between our lower 95% and lower 68% confidence region edges, and 2.3 for Expectations of Long Term Inflation, which is marginally below our central estimate and well within the 68% confidence region. From this I continue to be confident our estimates are accurate and useful.

Key: blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the prior released data fits within our estimates.