Results from a Private Survey of the Consumer Sentiment and Expectations for March, 2020

Data about the Consumer Sentiment and Expectations is due to be released today at 10 am by the University of Michigan, from their Surveys of Consumers program. Giller Investments operates private consumer survey that we base proprietary trading strategies on. We are happy to share the results we have for several statistics including Consumer Sentiment and Expectations of Inflation. This data is available on AWS Data Exchange in real time as survey results are processed for subscription here. Full details in the press release here.

Key: yellow highlights are data that should be compared with todays’s releases, blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the prior released data fits within our estimates.

From a private survey of conditions and expectations taken this month, an index of consumer sentiment in the United States is estimated to have dropped by 2.4 points to 100.1 at month end. Expectations of inflation over a 5–10 year horizon are estimated to have risen by 0.1% to 2.4%.

Yesterday, historic data for Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance was released. Although the survey panel I follow did indicate an increase in unemployment, it did not track the error being anywhere near as severe as the ultimately released datum. I am continuing to release this data as I believe it to be of value, but it is clear that there is a real chance of a substantial miss.