Results from a Private Survey of Consumer Sentiment and Expectations for February, 2020

Public data from their Surveys of Consumers program are due to be released today by the University of Michigan. Giller Investments operates private consumer survey that we base proprietary trading strategies on. We are happy to share the results we have for consumer sentiment and consumer expectations of inflation. Full details in the press release here. This data is available on AWS Data Exchange in real time as survey results are processed for subscription here and here.

Key: yellow highlights are data that should be compared with todays’s releases, blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the prior released data fits within our estimates.

From a private survey of conditions and expectations taken this month, an index of consumer sentiment in the United States is estimated to have risen by 3.0 points to 102.5 at month end. Expectations of inflation over a 5–10 year horizon are estimated to have remained unchanged at 2.4%

This data is from a private consumer survey operated by Giller Investments. The results of the survey are used as an input to proprietary trading activity. This data is provided to the public and may be reproduced with attribution. This is not investment advice and should not be treated as such. Giller Investments (New Jersey), LLC is not a RIA.

Ex post update: the numbers from the University of Michigan were just published and both released values were between the edge of the 68% confidence region and the central estimate at 101 for Consumer Sentiment and 2.3 for long-term inflation expectations.

Key: blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the released data fits within our estimates.