How is Consumer Confidence Looking as we Approach Year End?

Giller Investments regularly runs surveys to assess consumer sentiment and expectations. We use this to support our own proprietary trading, but the information generated can also be used to anticipate more canonical economic statistics.

Today the University of Michigan will release its final December data for consumer sentiment and expectations of inflation and I am always interested in comparing our data to theirs.

From our private survey of conditions and expectations taken this month, an index of consumer sentiment in the United States is estimated to have remained unchanged at 95.0 at month end. Expectations of inflation over a 5–10 year horizon are estimated to have remained unchanged at 2.5%. You can download the full release here.

Ex post update: the University of Michigan released their data at 10 a.m. EST. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 99.3, a little higher than the preliminary number and within our 68% confidence region. The longer-term inflation number (5–10 year horizon) came in at 2.2%, within our 95% confidence region.