Early November Look at Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

This month’s releases from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers programmes are advanced due to time out scheduled for the Thanksgiving holiday. I am publishing here equivalent data from my own private survey, which is informative about these numbers. I see a slight increase in consumer sentiment (to an index value of 95.1 from 94.9) and inflation expectations essentially unchanged at about 2.5% over the long term. It will be interesting to see how this “preliminary” take compares to their numbers.

Ex post addendum: The University of Michigan’s numbers (released at 10 am today), agree with our reads. They have Consumer Sentiment up 0.2 (from 95.5 to 95.7, our number was up 0.2 from 94.9 to 95.1) and Expectations of Inflation up slightly by 0.1% (from 2.3% to 2.4%, our number was down marginally 0.04% at 2.45% from 2.49%).