A Mid-Month Look at February Consumer Sentiment and Expectations

Public data from their Surveys of Consumers program are due to be released tomorrow by the University of Michigan. Giller Investments operates private consumer survey that we base proprietary trading strategies on. We are happy to share the results we have for consumer sentiment and consumer expectations of inflation. Full details in the press release here.

Key: yellow highlights are data that should be compared with tomorrow’s releases, blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the prior released data fits within our estimates.

From a private survey of conditions and expectations taken this month, an index of consumer sentiment in the United States is estimated to have dropped by 2.5 points to 97.0 at the mid-month point. Expectations of inflation over a 5–10 year horizon are estimated to have remained unchanged at 2.4%.

This data is from a private consumer survey operated by Giller Investments. The results of the survey are used as an input to proprietary trading activity. This data is provided to the public and may be reproduced with attribution. This is not investment advice and should not be treated as such. Giller Investments (New Jersey), LLC is not a RIA.

Ex post update: the University of Michigan released a Consumer Sentiment index of 100.9 today and a longer-term inflation expectations number of 2.3%. Their data is here. Both numbers are essentially between our central estimate and one of the 68% confidence region bounds.

Key: blue highlights are the confidence intervals where the released data fits within our estimates.